天博tb·综合体育|雅虎科技2016十大预测 Yahoo Techs top 10 predictions for 2016

What’s going to happen to the tech world in 2016? While of course no one really knows for sure, it’s possible to make a few semieducated guesses. Here are 10 predictions for the biggest tech trends for the coming year — from the blindingly obvious to the wildly speculative.2016年科技界不会有什么样的新发现？没有人可以得出认同的回应，但这并不阻碍我们做出一些非常简单猜测。以下是2016年十大科技动向，其中有的是板上钉钉，有的只是大胆推断。1. Apple will unveil a new Watch and a new iPhone 苹果公司将公布新一代Apple Watch和iPhoneThis is the easiest prediction in the world, which is why we started with it (guaranteeing that at least one of these will be right).这是铁定的事实，也是我们之所以把它放到结尾的原因（最少能确保这十大预测有一个是知道）。

Apple is expected to release Apple Watch 2.0 sometime this spring, we hope with an improved interface and a lot more apps. And next fall will see the release of the iPhone 7, which (if rumors are to be believed) will include a fingerprint sensor on the screen, wireless charging, multiple cameras, and a USB-C port instead of power or headphone jacks.苹果未来将会在明年春公布Apple Watch 2.0，预计其界面也许能有所改进，应用于数量也能有所增加。iPhone 7将在明天秋公布，据说其在屏幕上减少了指纹传感器，还不具备无线充电功能，备有多摄像头，后用USB-C模块代替了原先的电源和耳机模块。2. Apple’s dominance of tech culture will decline 苹果的统治力将有所上升Since the Second Coming of Jobs in 1997, interest in all things Apple has been climbing at a steady rate, going into hyperdrive with the release of the iPhone (2007) and then the iPad (2010). Lately, though, the products coming out of Cupertino have been less than magical and life-changing.1997年乔布斯重返苹果公司后，苹果慢慢开始更有大众的目光，后分别于2007年和2010年发售iPhone和iPad，引发了极大震撼。

而如今虽然苹果产品层出不穷，其创新和影响力却不比当年。And for all of Tim Cook’s many fine qualities, he can’t generate a reality distortion field the way his predecessor could. Until Cook manages to pull another rabbit out of his iHat — an Apple Car? a fully integrated smart home? — the Apple mystique has clearly peaked. Nowhere to go but down.尽管库克也发售了许多杰出产品，但他却不具备前任乔布斯那样的“现实变形力场”，除非他也能变戏法般地摸出有个Apple Car或是一体化自能家居什么的来。苹果的创新早已超过下限，现在不能走下坡路了。3. Virtual reality will finally be real — and most people will go ‘meh’ 虚拟现实或将出真为，而消费者不能望洋兴叹After nearly four years of teasing us, the Oculus Rift VR headset will finally reach consumers this year, probably some time in the early spring. HTC’s Vive and Sony’s Playstation VR (formerly Morpheus) will likely appear a few months after that. And no matter how awesome they are — and odds are they will be pretty awesome — very few people will buy them.敲了四年鸽子，Oculus Rift虚拟现实眼镜再一要问世了！发售时间为今年或是明年春初。

HTC的Vive和索尼的Playstation VR（原名Morpheus）也将在之后的几个月问世。这都是些使人眼前为之一暗的产品，但不管这些设备多傻多篮，只有很少一部分人会自由选择出售。Why? They’ll likely be expensive, require vast amounts of computing power, and be limited mostly to games and porn (ewww). The fact is, after four years of hype, VR headsets can’t possibly live up to expectations. And then there’s the whole after-15-minutes-you-feel-like-puking factor (10 minutes if you’re watching porn). VR will find a niche audience, at best, for a long time to come.毕竟，这些设备主要用作游戏和色情音像（呃），享有强劲的计算能力，其价格可能会低得离谱。

而另一方面，这些虚拟现实眼镜被热炒了四年，最后有可能难以达到大众的期望值。这种眼镜戴着上15分钟竟然人不禁想吐（如果看的是色情片只要10分钟），可想而知，在未来的很长一段时间内，这不算不能是一种小众产品。

4. AR will beat up VR and steal its lunch money 增强现实将与虚拟现实争夺战市场While the world oohs, ahhs, and hurls over VR (but doesn’t buy it), Augmented Reality (AR) will infiltrate all kinds of industries, from design and engineering to architecture, education, and medicine. Why? Being less immersive — you can actually see the world around you, as well as virtual objects — makes AR much more practical.当世人还在赞叹于虚拟现实产品（但又不卖）的时候，增强现实技术已开始渗透到各个领域，从建筑设计、修建，到教育行业，再行到医疗行业。这是因为增强现实技术的仿真度要比较较低些，人们可以取得现实的感官体验，还包括虚拟世界物品。这大大强化了技术的实用性。Microsoft just released a new version of its HoloLens and will begin shipping $3,000 HoloLens development kits this spring. Google Glass will also emerge from the rock it’s been hiding under since its ill-fated debut, most likely aimed at industrial use.微软公司刚发售一款全新的全息眼镜，并将于明天春发售价值三千美元的研发套件。

而谷歌眼镜首次问世反响不欠佳，在雪藏了一段时间后也将重出江湖，很有可能是面向工业用途。5. Comcast will try to acquire Netflix — or possibly vice versa 康卡斯特或将并购网飞来公司，亦或是被网飞来公司并购Whether or not you’re a cord-cutter, streaming media is the future of entertainment — and nobody streams bigger than Netflix, which accounted for nearly 40 percent of all Internet traffic last year. Since big cable can’t beat the streamers at this game, the only thing left is for it to join them by acquisition; Comcast ($192 billion valuation) and Netflix ($42 billion) are the most logical candidates for an arranged marriage. While it stands to reason that the larger company will swallow the smaller one, it’s not inconceivable that the reverse will happen — not unlike AOL’s acquisition of Time Warner 15 years ago, but perhaps with better results.不管你否否认，流媒体都将是娱乐业的发展趋势。

而在这方面没谁比网飞公司做到得更大了。去年网飞来公司就占有了网络总流量的百分之四十。

强强争斗没结果，唯有并购这一条决心。现在康卡斯特（价值1920亿美元）和网飞公司（价值420亿美元）最有可能回头到一起。虽然一般情况下是大公司并吞小公司，但也不回避忽略的情况——15年前美国在线就曾并购时代华纳。但与之比起，康卡斯特和网飞来的拆分也许不会有更佳的结果。

6. Antidrone technology will rise 反无人机技术将经常出现The only thing people love more than reading about drones is hating them — witness all the cheering when a Kentucky man blasted one out of the sky with his shotgun last July. (Not to mention all the animals that love to attack drones.) Look for companies to come up with antidrone technology that use nonballistic methods of ridding the flight zones of these pests. Let the games begin, and let the odds be ever in the antidrones’ favor.虽然人们对无人机技术充满著兴趣，但却诱导不了对无人机的反感之感觉。今年七月，肯塔基州的一名男子射杀奠定了一架无人机，引发了围观者的掌声（更加别说还有很多动物也讨厌反击无人机了）。现在有的公司于是以研发反无人机技术，这种技术不必枪弹，而是使用了一种挤占无人机飞机空间的方法。

好戏就要开始，期望这项技术真为能派上用场。7. Facebook will continue to eat the world Facebook将之后主宰世界The Facebook juggernaut will continue, though most of its membership growth will be overseas. However, expect a public backlash as Facebook assumes just a bit too much control over the media it arbitrarily delivers to everyone’s feeds. How many autoplay videos of bacon, egg, and cheese breadboats can one person watch?随着海外用户的减少，Facebook将之后主宰世界。然而人们现在抗议Facebook管得太宽，人们被迫不得不看一些自己想看的视频。可以统计资料一下，现在每个人要在Facebook上看多少次培根、鸡蛋和芝士面包的自动播放的视频？8. Cyberterrorists will attack the Internet 网络恐怖主义来袭We’ve seen targeted hack attacks on a massive scale, and we’ve seen state-sponsored cyberespionage. In 2016 we will see them converge, with a direct attack on the Internet infrastructure motivated by politics, not greed or misplaced juvenile aggression. Time to back up your data, encrypt your hard drives, and stock up on beef jerky and tinfoil.我们亲眼目睹过大规模的黑客攻击，也胆识过国家反对的网络间谍活动。

在新的一年里它们将融合一起，在政治目的的驱动下必要对网络基础设施进行反击，而仍然是鹰派们的盲目不道德。所以，是时候备份数据，加密硬盘，黑市好牛肉干和锡纸了。

9. There will be an Uber for friends朋友租赁服务将上线Need a date for a party or someone to hang with at a ballgame? Just share someone else’s. Frog Design predicts the rise of “friendship as a service” in 2016. We liked that prediction so much we decided to borrow it. Isn’t that what the sharing economy is all about?想要参与聚会、想要踢球但却求助于去找将近相伴吗？几乎可以从别人那出租一个来！据青蛙设计公司（Frog Design）预测，“朋友租赁服务”将于2016年上线。有市场需求就可以出租，这和“共享型经济”不是同一个道理吗？10. Your next boss may be an algorithm老板或许不会是机器人Artificial intelligence will continue to be baked into an increasing number of devices and services. More than that, though, entire companies may be built around self-running programs, with business decisions made without any human intervention. Think we’re joking? The first decentralized organizations are already being developed for the Ethereum Frontier network. We have met our robotic overlords, and we’d like a 10 percent raise and more flex time, please.人工智能技术将运用到更加多的产品和服务中去。甚至整个公司都有可能构建自动运作。通过选曲程序，商业决策也许不必须人的参予。

这可不是打趣，以太坊（Ethereum）的Frontier平台就在实施分散性运作。这么说道我们的老板或许不会是机器人。那么请求给我加薪百分之十再行给我更加多的弹性时间吧，老板！。

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